Monte Carlo Throughput Forecast

How much can your team realistically complete over a set period of time?

How It Works

This tool answers a different question than a date forecast: given your team's historical throughput, how many items (or story points) are you likely to complete over a set period of time? Enter your historical data, choose how many cycles to project across and how long each cycle is, and the simulator will run 10,000 scenarios to show you a realistic range of outcomes at different confidence levels.

Parameters
?
Simulates uncertainty by randomly reducing throughput in each simulation. 0% = no adjustment. 20% means a simulation could lose up to 20% of its sampled throughput — useful for modeling interruptions, unplanned work, or team availability.
0% (no adjustment)
NoneLowMediumHigh
Forecasting across 1 cycle — 2 weeks total.
Throughput Forecast
Distribution