Monte Carlo Date Forecast

Probabilistic forecasting powered by historical data.

How It Works

Monte Carlo forecasting uses your team's actual historical performance to simulate thousands of possible futures. Instead of relying on a single estimate, it randomly samples from your past throughput or velocity data — over and over — to model how long remaining work might take.

Each simulation plays out differently, just like real sprints do. Some go fast, some go slow. By running 10,000 of these scenarios, we get a distribution of likely completion dates and can tell you with statistical confidence (e.g., 85% or 95%) when your project will finish.

Why use this over traditional estimation: It removes human bias, accounts for natural variability, and gives you a range of outcomes with confidence levels — not a single date that's almost certainly wrong.

Parameters
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Simulates uncertainty by randomly reducing your throughput each cycle. 0% = no adjustment. 20% means each cycle could lose up to 20% of its throughput — useful for modeling holidays, team changes, or scope creep.
None (0%)
NoneLowMediumHigh
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Adds extra time on top of your forecasted dates to account for unknowns. Applied to the 85% and 95% confidence results. A 10% buffer on a date 100 days away adds 10 days. Use this for external commitments where you want extra padding.
5% 10% 20% 25% 30%
Confidence Levels
Buffer Estimates
Distribution
Confidence Timeline